12 Long-Term Picks — Kids' Roth IRA

Ticker	Company	Category	~Price	Avg Target	Upside	Confidence	Dividend	Analysts
NVDA	Nvidia Corp.	Growth	~$197	$304	+54%	● Very High	~0.03%	Strong Buy · 61
LLY	Eli Lilly & Co.	Growth	~$1,160	$1,270	+9.5%	● Very High	~0.5%	Buy · 29
ASML	ASML Holding NV	Growth	~$1,581	$2,117	+34%	● Very High	~0.6%	Strong Buy · 44
APP	AppLovin Corp.	Growth	~$470	$688.75	+46%	● High	None	Buy · 20
MELI	MercadoLibre Inc.	Growth	~$2,000	$2,440	+22%	● High	None	Mod. Buy · 26
V	Visa Inc.	Foundation	~$373	$398.70	+7%	● Very High	$2.68/yr · 0.7%	Strong Buy · 37
MA	Mastercard Inc.	Foundation	$539.66	$643.59	+19%	● Very High	$3.48/yr · 0.6%	Strong Buy · 37
COST	Costco Wholesale	Foundation	~$944	$1,083	+15%	● High	$5.88 + special	Buy · 33
SPGI	S&P Global Inc.	Foundation	~$434	$532.81	+23%	● High	$3.88/yr · 0.9%	Strong Buy · 21
AAPL	Apple Inc.	Foundation	$308.63	$318.81	+3%	● High	~$1.00/yr · 0.3%	Buy · 47
SHOP	Shopify Inc.	Growth	~$125	$147–157	+18–26%	● Moderate	None	Buy · 51
PLTR	Palantir Technologies	Conviction	~$130	$181–189	+40%	● Moderate	None	Mod. Buy · 14/4/2

NVDA

Nvidia Corp. · NASDAQ

Growth● Very High

~Price

~$197

Target / Up

$304 · +54%

FY2026 Rev

$215.9B +65%

Q1 Data Ctr

$62.3B +75%

Every AI model on Earth trains on NVIDIA GPUs. FY2026 revenue hit $215.9B (+65.5% YoY), with Q1 alone at $81.6B — profit tripling year-over-year.
Supply commitments doubled in a single quarter — from $50.3B to $95.2B — signaling locked-in demand well beyond current guidance. Sovereign AI revenue tripled to $30B+ for the full year.
AMD is in the brokerage — NVIDIA owns the software platform (CUDA). AMD competes on price; NVIDIA owns the ecosystem. Good to hold both, different sizing.
Risk: China export restrictions, valuation multiple compression if AI capex slows. 61 analysts at Strong Buy, $500 bull case.

If AI becomes the infrastructure of the next 20 years, NVDA is the picks-and-shovels play. $95B in supply commitments is one of the strongest demand signals in market history.

LLY

Eli Lilly & Co. · NYSE

Growth● Very High

~Price

~$1,160

Target / Up

$1,270 · +9.5%

2026 Rev Guide

$80–83B

Rev Growth

+16%/yr est.

In April 2026, the FDA approved orforglipron (Foundayo) — the first oral GLP-1 small molecule. No injection, no food restriction. Removes the single biggest barrier to GLP-1 adoption globally.
Tirzepatide is now in clinical trials for autoimmune disease, type 1 diabetes, psoriasis, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis — transforming from a diabetes drug into a chronic disease platform.
JNJ is already held in the Roth — LLY is the higher-growth healthcare complement. 16% annual revenue growth through 2028; 29 analysts Buy.
Risk: Novo Nordisk competition, manufacturing scale-up delays. BofA and Cantor both raised targets recently.

Obesity affects 40%+ of adults globally. Your kids are buying Eli Lilly when it treats ten diseases at once. The pipeline is what makes this extraordinary.

ASML

ASML Holding NV · NASDAQ

Growth● Very High

~Price

~$1,581

Target / Up

$2,117 · +34%

2026 Rev Guide

€43–45B +35%

High Target

$2,851

ASML raised its 2026 sales guidance to €43–45B. CEO stated: "AI's next bottleneck is no longer GPUs — it's EUV capacity." Builds the only machines capable of printing leading-edge chips. No competitor exists.
2026: 65 EUV systems shipped. Plans for +30% in 2027, evaluating another +30% in 2028. JPMorgan target $2,400; Wells Fargo $2,500.
Perfect complement to TSM in the brokerage. TSM fabricates the chips; ASML sells TSM the machines it cannot exist without. 44 analysts at Strong Buy.
Risk: China DUV restrictions cap one revenue segment. Lost China revenue replaced by higher-margin EUV from Taiwan, Korea, and the US.

A monopoly on the most critical chokepoint in global chip manufacturing. In 20 years, every AI chip ever made will have passed through an ASML machine.

APP

AppLovin Corp. · NASDAQ

Growth● High

~Price

~$470

Target / Up

$688 · +46%

Q1 Rev Growth

+59% YoY

Net Margin

65%

AppLovin's AXON AI ad engine generated Q1 2026 revenue of $1.84B (+59% YoY) with a 65% net profit margin — among the highest in all of software. Net income: $1.21B in one quarter.
AXON is expanding from mobile gaming to e-commerce — a move that could 5–10x the addressable market. Global self-serve launch mid-2026. Citi Buy, $710 target. Q2 earnings Aug 5.
Zero overlap with existing holdings. NET is network security; APP is AI advertising infrastructure. Benchmark named it a 2026 Top Idea.
Risk: advertising is cyclical; e-commerce expansion is unproven. 20 analysts, Buy consensus, avg target $688.

A 65% profit margin company growing 59% YoY is rare. The e-commerce ad expansion is what makes this a decade-long story, not just a gaming play.

MELI

MercadoLibre Inc. · NASDAQ

Growth● High

~Price

~$2,000

Target / Up

$2,440 · +22%

Q1 Rev Growth

+49% YoY

Fintech Users

72.2M +29%

MercadoLibre is simultaneously the Amazon, PayPal, and Shopify of Latin America. Q1 2026: $8.85B revenue (+49% YoY). Fintech AUM +89% to $15.1B. 72.2M active fintech users.
The missing international exposure in both accounts. All current holdings are US-centric. MELI captures the digitization of 650M+ people in an underpenetrated market. $10.9B Brazil investment in 2026 alone.
23 of 26 analysts Buy or Strong Buy, zero sells. Avg target $2,440. Some analysts project $3,000. Q2 earnings around Aug 5.
Risk: currency exposure (Brazil, Argentina), high-inflation markets. A 20-year horizon absorbs all of these.

Latin America's e-commerce penetration is where the US was in 2010. MELI owns the rails. Your kids hold it while an entire continent comes online.

Visa Inc. · NYSE

Foundation● Very High

~Price

~$373

Target / Up

$398.70 · +7%

Dividend

$2.68/yr · 0.7%

Analysts

34 Buy · 0 Sell

Visa doesn't lend money — it moves it. Every transaction crossing its network earns a toll with near-zero credit risk. Gross margins above 80%, ROE above 40%, no balance sheet risk when consumers default.
The dividend compounds tax-free inside a Roth IRA. $2.68/year reinvested for 20 years at Visa's historical dividend growth rate becomes a materially larger position.
Zero overlap with any existing holding. 34 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell. $450 high target. Cash-to-card conversion still early in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

One of the most durable businesses ever built. In 20 years, every payment on Earth will move through Visa or Mastercard. Worth owning both.

Mastercard Inc. · NYSE

Foundation● Very High

~Price

$539.66

Target / Up

$643.59 · +19%

Dividend

$3.48/yr · 0.6%

EPS Growth

+11%/yr est.

The other half of the global payments duopoly. V and MA together control the majority of global card volume — a two-player market that has held for 50 years with no structural threat emerging.
38 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell. 11% annual EPS growth forecast over 3 years. No bearish coverage from any major analyst firm.
MA has stronger B2B payment exposure than V — different strengths across international markets. Worth owning both; they're two lanes of the same highway, not duplicates.
$3.48/year dividend compounding tax-free at 11%/yr for 20 years is a very different number when the kids are 28 and 30.

The toll booth on the global economy. The dividend growing 11%/yr inside a Roth IRA is quietly powerful.

COST

Costco Wholesale Corp. · NASDAQ

Foundation● High

~Price

~$944

Target / Up

$1,083 · +15%

Dividend

$5.88 + special

Renewal Rate

90%+

Costco's core business is the membership, not the merchandise. They sell goods at near-cost; the $65/year fee is where they make money — and 90%+ of members renew every year. Recurring revenue disguised as a warehouse club.
Different from WMT already held. Walmart competes on open retail pricing; Costco charges for the privilege of shopping there. Different psychology, margin structure, and moat.
Quarterly dividend raised 13% to $1.47/share in April 2026. Special dividends declared periodically. Bernstein at $1,194 — top of analyst range.
Risk: perpetually high P/E (~50x). Never looks cheap. Costco has never closed a warehouse for financial reasons.

The kind of business a child buys at 10 and forgets about until they're 30. Boring in exactly the right way for a Roth IRA.

SPGI

S&P Global Inc. · NYSE

Foundation● High

~Price

~$434

Target / Up

$532.81 · +23%

Dividend

$3.88/yr · 0.9%

Div. Growth

+11%/yr · 10 yrs

S&P Global rates every bond issued, owns the S&P 500 index, and sells financial data to every major institution on Earth. When capital markets function, SPGI collects rent on them.
Dividend grown 11% per year for 10 consecutive years. Inside a Roth IRA, every reinvested dollar and every dividend increase compounds entirely tax-free. $3.88 at 11%/yr becomes $11.01/share in 10 years.
Zero overlap across both accounts. BRKB owns financial companies; SPGI is the infrastructure they all depend on. Different layer entirely. Strong Buy, 21 analysts.
Stifel raised to $521 and Clear Street raised to $516 in recent weeks. Both reiterated Buy.

Owns the S&P 500, rates the world's debt, raises its dividend every year. The most overlooked compounding machine in this list.

AAPL

Apple Inc. · NASDAQ

Foundation● High

~Price

$308.63

Target / Up

$318.81 · +3%

2027 Target

$439.11 · +42%

EPS Growth

+10.3%/yr

The world's largest consumer technology ecosystem — and the most glaring gap in both accounts. 1.4 billion active devices generate a services flywheel (App Store, iCloud, Apple Pay, TV+) growing 15%+ annually at 70%+ gross margins.
47 analysts, Buy consensus. 1-year upside only 3% — but the 2027 avg target of $439 implies 42% over 18 months. This is a decade play, not a next-quarter trade.
Apple Intelligence is in early monetization. Buybacks retire ~3–4% of shares annually. Services revenue is now $100B+ annual run rate.
Risk: near-term target looks full. Long-term 10.3%/yr compounded is the real argument.

The most obvious oversight in both accounts. The kids buying this today will likely still use Apple devices at 30 — and so will everyone else on Earth.

SHOP

Shopify Inc. · NASDAQ

Growth● Moderate

~Price

~$125

Target / Up

$147–157 · +18%

Analysts

51 · Buy

High Target

$200

Shopify is the operating system for independent commerce. While AMZN is a marketplace, Shopify is the infrastructure underneath merchants competing with Amazon — payments, fulfillment, storefronts, Merchant of Record services.
Operating in 175+ countries. International GMV growing 30%+ YoY. Merchant of Record expansion positions Shopify to own global e-commerce the way Stripe owns global payments.
51 analysts, Buy. Jefferies at $160 (+28%), Scotiabank high target $200. EPS forecast $1.86 for 2026.
Risk: 80% drawdown from 2021 highs. Volatile. Confidence is Moderate — size accordingly.

Amazon is the mall. Shopify is the commercial real estate under every store that isn't in the mall. Both worth owning — size SHOP accordingly.

PLTR

Palantir Technologies · NASDAQ

Conviction● Moderate

~Price

~$130

Target / Up

$181–189 · +40%

EPS Growth

+46%/yr est.

Ratings

14 Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell

Palantir builds the AI operating layer for governments and large enterprises inside classified networks no competitor can touch. AIP turns organizational data into operational intelligence — government contracts don't cancel in downturns.
EPS growth forecast 45.98% annually — highest in the software infrastructure category. US commercial revenue accelerating as AIP bootcamps convert trials to annual contracts.
Zero overlap: NET is network security infrastructure; PLTR is mission-critical decision intelligence at the application layer. Different stack, different buyer.
Risk: rich valuation, 2 Sell ratings in 20. Size smaller — satellite position, not a core one.

Highest ceiling, real risk. The government won't stop needing battlefield AI in 20 years — if Palantir owns that standard when the budget scales, the upside is substantial.

Ticker	Account	Action	Why	Analyst Signal
MSFT	Roth IRA	● Add More	Azure AI at $37B annual revenue run rate (+123% YoY). Copilot surpassed 200M paid users — inside every Microsoft 365 seat. $190B AI infrastructure investment in 2026. This is the enterprise AI distribution channel.	54/57 Buy · Target $558 · ~+35%
AMZN	Roth IRA	● Add More	Evercore ISI's #1 large-cap long idea for 2026. AWS 27–33% growth driven by Anthropic, Bedrock, enterprise AI. BofA raised AWS forecast to 33% YoY. UBS calls it a "coiled spring." 57 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell.	Strong Buy · Target $312 · +16.8%
GOOG	Brokerage	● Add More	Most undervalued AI megacap at 26.9x forward P/E — 38% net profit margin. Google Cloud backlog $460B. Gemini processing 16B tokens/minute. Trades at a discount to MSFT and AMZN despite comparable AI positioning.	44 Buy · 0 Sell · Target $493
TSM	Brokerage	● Add More	Record Q2 2026. Full-year growth raised to 40%+. High-Performance Computing now 66% of wafer revenue. TSMC forecasts semiconductor market reaching $1.5T by 2030. Morgan Stanley raised target.	Strong Buy · Target $537 · +37.7%
NET	Brokerage	● Add More	Cloudflare is the cybersecurity and performance layer of the internet. AI dramatically expands the attack surface — secular tailwind for NET. Developer platform (Workers, Pages) is a growing secondary revenue stream.	Strong secular tailwind · consider adding
AMD	Brokerage	● Hold	Good AI GPU exposure but NVIDIA owns the software platform (CUDA). Hold AMD as the challenger — if new AI chip capital is available, NVDA is the stronger add.	Hold — prefer NVDA for new AI chip exposure
BRKB	Brokerage	● Hold	Berkshire is a stable compounder and wealth-preservation vehicle. Well-managed. No urgent reason to add — V, MA, and SPGI provide better long-term compounding for the Roth IRA context.	Hold — solid but outpaced by direct equity picks
FCNTX	Brokerage	● Hold	Fidelity Contrafund is well-managed with diversified growth exposure. Good to hold. As direct equity positions build, FCNTX becomes relatively redundant — not urgent to add more.	Hold — serves its purpose
WMT	Roth IRA	● Hold	Walmart is becoming a data and advertising platform, not just a retailer. E-commerce accelerating. Solid hold. COST is the better consumer retail add for a new position.	Hold — good compounder, COST is the better add
JNJ	Roth IRA	● Hold	Stable healthcare with consistent dividend. Hold JNJ — LLY is the growth-oriented healthcare add. The GLP-1 pipeline is a generation-defining opportunity JNJ doesn't have.	Hold — LLY is the growth healthcare add
NFLX	Roth IRA	● Hold	Streaming dominant, advertising tier now meaningful. Solid hold. Rich valuation relative to the alternatives. Don't prioritize adding more when NVDA, LLY, or ASML are the options.	Hold — solid but lower priority
IMO	Brokerage	● Consider Trimming	Imperial Oil (oil sands, Canada). Useful inflation hedge short-term; for an 8-and-10-year-old's 20-year account, the secular trend is away from fossil fuels. Consider redeploying into growth picks over time.	Low priority for a 20-year AI-era horizon
COKE	Roth IRA	● Hold	Regional Coca-Cola bottler — dividend income and inflation resilience. Solid hold. Not a priority to add more when Roth IRA contributions are better deployed into growth picks.	Hold — stable income, low growth priority
BE	Brokerage	● Hold	Bloom Energy — solid oxide fuel cell clean energy. Long-term thesis is valid for a 20-year horizon. Volatile. Hold as a small speculative satellite — data center power demand is a genuine tailwind.	Hold — speculative, data center power tailwind